Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Who Will it Be Tonight? Mitt or Rick?

Tonight Republican primary voters (and if you believe the political punditry, some mischievous Democrats) will go to the polls in Michigan and make their selections for the Republican nominee for president.  The outcome of this primary will be significant.  Who will Michiganders select?  The technocrat who seems so distanced from the the general voter that a vote for him (Romney) will be a vote cast with an attitude of "well, he's not who I want but he's the only one with a chance against Obama"?  Or, will the social conservative who in great adolescent fashion describes a speech by JFK as one that "makes me want to throw up"? 

Personally,  either way this goes in my view doesn't help the GOP.  Romney or Santorum will win this primary.  How does it help the Republicans in the general election?  It doesn't in my opinion.  If it is Romney, the GOP will have a flawed candidate who cannot relate to the common person who will cast his or her vote in November.  If it is Santorum, then the GOP establishment will go into full panic mode, as they do not want a candidate who can seemingly only castigate everyone but his narrow group of people who like home-schooling, no birth control, and a nation who support his view of theocracy for the country.  The GOP in general is distancing itself from Santorum as fast as possible.  This week, Mr. Santorum decided to add fuel to his already blazing inferno of political idiocy by decrying President Obama as a "snob" for wanting kids to go to college.  He suggests that President Obama wants our kids to go to college to be "indoctrinated" into some left-wing, secular philosophy that rejects faith and in general Mr. Santorum's view of how America should behave as a nation.  The National Governors Association meeting in Washington has given several Republican Governors a soap-box to distance themselves from Santorum and, surprisingly, support President Obama on this issue.

Should Romney pull this primary out, he is still by no means the Republican nominee.  If he wins, he needs to gather his advisers and have a serious conversation of how he can transform himself from a plastic, patrician, rich-guy into someone the general population can actually relate to.  Ridiculous comments like "I like Michigan, the trees are the right height", and "I drive American Made cars, I have a Chevy Pickup, a Mustang and my wife drives a couple of Cadillacs".  A couple of Cadillacs.  That really relates to the guy who is driving the 10 year old Ford Taurus with 150k miles on it and has to put oil in the engine every other time he stops to fill up for gas.  Romney is so out of touch with the common person in this country that he makes George H. W. Bush look like Huey Long.  He has to get some level of empathy and understanding of the family who has both the mom and dad working, living paycheck to paycheck and saving a paltry 5-10% of their money on the hopes,  the hopes of being able to send one of their 2.5 kids to a state university or community college.  If he cannot make this change, he's lost 70% of the electorate.    And, he will have very little chance of winning the nomination if he doesn't win Michigan.  Super Tuesday comes next, with the Southern States being the majority of the primaries to be contested.  Should Romney lose Michigan, he stands little chance of garnering enough delegates during Super Tuesday to close Santorum out, who will likely split the vote between himself and Gingrich.

The GOP establishment is most likely on conference calls all day today and tomorrow considering various scenarios where they can get Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels or some-body else, anybody else but these Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse to be their standard bearer come the Tampa Convention.

To be sure,  the Obama camp cannot mistake the monumental SNAFU the GOP currently finds itself in as a guaranty for a win in November.  There are many, many things that can derail the President's re-election and he and his team must be focused and energetic on his efforts to keep his job.

It is amazing how $5.00 a gallon gasoline can change people's opinion at the polls.

So who is it going to be tonight?  Romney or Santorum?




Tell me what you think,


Regards,
Dennis

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